Dr Gilberto Montibeller's
Web Site

Research
 

My field of expertise is Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA).  Broadly speaking, MCDA encompasses a set of methodologies devised for supporting complex decisions which involve the choice of strategic options in the presence of several, and many times conflicting, objectives.

I am particularly interested in applying MCDA to support real-world decisions, bounded by uncertainty, presenting difficult trade-offs to make, lacking cogent data and involving group dynamics and organisational politics.

Research Interests

My research programmes, which are closed connected with applying MCDA for this type of decisions, are focused on the interfaces between MCDA and four main subjects, which are described below:

• Links between Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs) and MCDA. PSMs are a family of Operational Research tools which support the structuring and definition of complex problems. Since mid-1990s there is a growing interest, by both the Decision Analysis and PSM communities, in integrating PSMs with MCDA. This research programme investigates ways of combining them, with the former employed for problem structuring and the latter for the evaluation of options. Its aims are i) devise better ways of integrating methodologies from these two fields; and ii) develop new methodologies which employ concepts from both fields in an integrated way.
   

• Risk & Uncertainty and MCDA. Complex decisions almost invariably involve huge uncertainties and require the management of risks. While a formal treatment of risk is widely available in Decision Analysis (e.g., decision trees), many times the level of uncertainty does not permit the definition of probabilities for each future scenario. This research programme explores i) the employment of MCDA methodologies in such cases, for analysing and managing multi-dimensional sources of risks; and ii) the use of MCDA methodologies when there is uncertainty about performances of options.
   

• Practical MCDA Applications. This research programme seeks explicitly involvement with the industry/organisations to provide decision support using MCDA, employing action-research as a means of learning and reflecting about the practice. The focus of the applications conducted so far has been on developing decision support systems for complex and repeatable decisions, in particular for financial and operations problems. Interventions have been conducted both in Britain and in Brazil, for small as well as for large organisations. The majority of them have had their results published in academic journals.
   

• Evaluation of MCDA Interventions. Despite a growing number of real-world applications, the MCDA field still seems to lack a more reflective approach for conducting such interventions. Closely connected with the previous research programme, this programme entails i) assessing the outcomes of interventions that I have been involved with; and ii) developing tools that could help MCDA practitioners in reflecting on and improving their practice.  Its final aim is to investigate suitable research methods for MCDA interventions, as well as explore how to appraise their social outcomes. Such framework could increase the transferability of MCDA practice and help to gather empirical data about facilitation strategies of MCDA practitioners.

As part of my research strategy, I have been actively involved in organising streams and session in the main Operational Research conferences, with topics that proved to be very popular with the Decision Analysis community.

I have had the pleasure to have some of the key researchers in the field presenting papers in these sessions/streams, such as Ralph Keeney, Detlof von Winterfeld, Larry Phillips, Valerie Belton, Theo Stewart, Greg Parnell, Jonathan Rosenhead among others. I am in debt to them for their support.

• Session Organiser: "Facilitated Decision Analysis", INFORMS Annual Meeting (INFORMS 2009), San Diego, USA, 2009 (with A Franco) - forthcoming.

• Stream Organiser: "Facilitated Decision Modelling", XXIII Conference of the European Operational Research Societies (EURO 2009), Bonn, Germany, 2009 (with A Franco).

• Session Organiser: "Improving MCDA Practice", INFORMS Annual Meeting (INFORMS 2008), Washington DC, USA, 2008 (with C Schaub).

• Stream Organiser: "Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis" 50th British Operational Research Conference (OR 50), York, UK, 2008 (with V Belton).

• Session Organiser: "Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis facilitation" International Conference of the Operational Research Societies Conference (IFORS 2008), South Africa, 2008.

• Stream Organiser: "Facilitated Problem Structuring and Decision Analysis", XXII Conference of the European Operational Research Societies (EURO 2007), Prague, Czech Republic (with A. Franco).

• Stream Organiser: "Decision Analysis", 48th British Operational Research Conference (OR 48), Bath, UK, 11-13 Sep 2006 (with A. Morton).

• Session Organiser: "Integrated Decision Making: Problem Structuring Methods + Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis", XXI Conference of the European Operational Research Societies (EURO 2006), Reykjavik, Iceland, 2-5 Jul 2006.

• Session Organiser: "Links between Problem Structuring and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis" - XXVIII International Conference on Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM 2006), Chania, Greece, 19-23 Jun 2006.

• Session Organiser: "Real-world Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis applications - Action and Research", International Conference of the Operational Research Societies Conference (IFORS 2005) - Hawaii, USA, 11-15 Jul 2005.

• Stream Organiser: "Decision Analysis", 47th British Operational Research Conference (OR 47), Chichester, UK, 13-15 Sep 2005 (with A. Morton).

I have had the pleasure to be invited to give research talks and key-note papers in several universities and research institutes. I have also been honoured to be invited as key-note speaker for scientific conferences in Operational Research. I list below such talks.

• Invited Research Talk: "Action-Researching Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis interventions", Decision Institute, Berlin, Germany , 24 Oct 2007.
   

• Key-Note Paper - Decision Analysis Stream: "Action-Researching Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis interventions", British Operational Research Conference (OR49), University of Edinburgh, 4 Sep 2007.
   

• Invited Research Talk: "The Combined Use of Scenario Planning and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis in Supporting Strategic Decision Making", OR & Strategy Special Interest Group, Warwick University (23 Nov 2006).
   

• Invited Research Talk: "Causal Maps and the Evaluation of Decision Options",  School of Computing Science, University of Brighton, 08 Feb 2006.
   

• Invited Research Talk: "From Design to Decision: An Integrated Approach linking Simulation, Evolutionary Multi-objective Optimization and MCDA", Management Mathematics Group, University of Portsmouth, 11 May 2005.
   

• Key-Note Paper - Decision Analysis stream: "From (and to) a New Generation of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysts: An Introduction to the Field and a Personal View on its Future" YOR 14 Conference, University of Bath, 4 Apr 2005.
   

• Invited Research Talk: "From Design to Decision: Integrating Discrete-Event Simulation, Evolutionary Multi-Objective Optimisation and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis" (with Prof V Belton), Dept. of Operational Research, London School of Economics, 26th Jan 2005.
   

• Invited Research Talk: "Reasoning Maps for Decision Aiding", Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, 4th Oct 2001.