I am an economist at the Bank of England and a visiting fellow in the LSE Department of Economics.
My email address is g.d.thwaites "at" lse.ac.uk
on a String: US Monetary Policy is Less Powerful in Recessions, accepted
for publication, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (with Silvana Tenreyro)
Abstract: We estimate the impulse response of key US macro series to the monetary policy shocks identified by Romer and Romer (2004), allowing the response to depend flexibly on the state of the business cycle. We find strong evidence that the effects of monetary policy on real and nominal variables are more powerful in expansions than in recessions. The magnitude of the difference is particularly large in durables expenditure and business investment. The effect is not attributable to differences in the response of fiscal variables or the external finance premium. We find some evidence that contractionary policy shocks have more powerful effects than expansionary shocks. But contractionary shocks have not been more common in booms, so this asymmetry cannot explain our main finding.
Data Set used in "Pushing on a String": Extended Series of Romer and Romer's shocks 1969-2007 by Tenreyro and Thwaites.
Recent working papers
‘The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the United Kingdom’ (with Jeremy Franklin and May Rostom), Bank of England staff paper no. 557, October 2015. BU post (Submitted)
‘Why are real interest rates so low? Secular stagnation and the relative price of investment goods’ Bank of England staff paper no. 564, November 2015. (Revise and resubmit)
‘Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom’ (with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alejandro Vicondoa) CfM discussion paper 2016-12
Work in Progress
‘Credit policy and wealth distribution’
‘Policy options for small open economies in a world of secular stagnation’
Older working papers and published policy work
‘Efficient frameworks for sovereign borrowing’ (2008), (with Gregor Irwin), Bank of England working paper no. 343
‘Optimal emerging-market fiscal policy when trend output growth is unobserved’ (2006), Bank of England working paper no. 308
‘Fiscal rules for debt sustainability in emerging markets – the impact of volatility and default risk’ (2006), (with Adrian Penalver), Bank of England working paper no. 307
‘Real world mortgages, consumption volatility and the low inflation environment’ (2005), (with Sebastian Barnes), Bank of England working paper no. 273
‘The Measurement of House Prices’ (2003) (with Rob Wood) Bank of England QB, Spring 2003