Gregory Thwaites

I am Research Director at WorldRemit, a part-time Research Associate at the Resolution Foundation and a visiting fellow in the LSE Centre for Macroeconomics. Prior to this, I was an economist at the Bank of England. I spent the first 10 years of my career doing policy work at the Bank of England, the United Nations Mission in Kosovo and the Independent Commission on Banking (the ‘Vickers Commission’). In 2011 I began a PhD at LSE under the supervision of Silvana Tenreyro, which I finished in 2015. I have broad theoretical and empirical research interests in remittances and fintech in a development context, and the macroeconomics of demographic and structural change, macroeconomic policy, financial stability, and inequality and distribution. I have taught macroeconomics (final-year undergraduate supervisions at Cambridge) and international finance (PhD field course lectures at LSE).

My email address is g.d.thwaites "at" lse.ac.uk

Bank of England website

Repec site

Google Scholar

 

Published research

Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy is Less Powerful in RecessionsAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Vol. 8 No. 4, October 2016 (with Silvana Tenreyro)
Abstract: We investigate how the response of the US economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the business cycle. The effects of monetary policy are less powerful in recessions, especially for durables expenditure and business investment. The asymmetry relates to how fast the economy is growing, rather than to the level of resource utilization. There is some evidence that fiscal policy has counteracted monetary policy in recessions but reinforced it in booms. We also find evidence that contractionary policy shocks are more powerful than expansionary shocks, but contractionary shocks have not been more common in booms. So this asymmetry cannot explain our main finding. Vox EU post Data Set

Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low? The Role of the Relative Price of Investment GoodsIMF Economic Review October 2016 (with Rana Sajedi) 
Abstract: Across the industrialised world, real interest rates and nominal investment rates have fallen, while house prices and household debt ratios have risen. We present a calibrated OLG model which quantifies how much of these four trends can be explained with a fifth—the widespread fall in the relative price of investment goods. Relative to other explanations for low real interest rates, this trend is important because it can also account for the fall in nominal investment rates. The model can reproduce a small but economically significant part of the observed fall in interest rates and rises in house prices and household debt, and a larger part of the fall in the investment rate. Working paper version

Step away from the zero lower bound: small open economies in a world of secular stagnationJournal of International Economics 2018 (with Giancarlo Corsetti, Eleonora Mavroeidi and Martin Wolf)
Abstract: We study how small open economies can escape from deflation and unemployment in a situation where the world economy is permanently depressed. Building on the framework of Eggertsson et al. (2016), we show that the transition to full employment and at-target inflation requires real and nominal depreciation of the exchange rate. However, because of adverse income and valuation effects from real depreciation, the escape has a beggar-thy-self effect, that may end up lowering welfare while eliminating underemployment. We show that as long as the economy remains financially open, domestic asset supply policies or reducing the effective lower bound on policy rates may be ineffective or even counterproductive. However, closing domestic capital markets does not necessarily enhance the monetary authorities' ability to rescue the economy from stagnation. (Previously published as Bank of England Staff Working Paper no. 666, July 2017

Foreign booms, domestic busts: the global dimension of banking crises’ (with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Fernando Eguren Martin) Bank of England Staff Working Paper no. 644, January 2017 (forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Intermediation) (BU post)

The banks that said no: banking relationships, credit supply and productivity in the United Kingdom’ (with Jeremy Franklin and May Rostom), Bank of England staff paper no. 557, October 2015. BU post (forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Services Research)

 

Recent working papers

 ‘Monetary Policy Transmission in an Open Economy: New Data and Evidence from the United Kingdom’ (with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alejandro Vicondoa) Bank of England Staff Working Paper no. 615, September 2016

 ‘Demographic trends and the real interest rate’ (with Noemie Lisack and Rana Sajedi) Bank of England Staff Working Paper no. 701, December 2017

 

Work in Progress

BoE-Nottingham-Stanford Decision Maker Panel with Nicholas Bloom, Phil Bunn, Paul Mizen and Garry Young

‘The public channel of monetary policy’ with Andrea Alati and Silvana Tenreyro

‘Old dogs and new tricks: workforce aging and the global slowdown in TFP’ with Gee Hee Hong

‘Banks and exchange-rate determination’ with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Michael Kumhof and Andrej Sokol

‘Will Brexit age well?’ with Barry Eichengreen and Rebecca Mari

‘Global cycles in inflation and interest rates’ with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon and Benjamin Nelson

 

Teaching

LSE EC532  

 

Bank Underground

Does domestic uncertainty really matter for the economy?

Population ageing and the macroeconomy

Voting with their wallets? Consumer expectations after the EU referendum

Foreign booms, domestic busts: the global dimension of banking crises

When banks say ‘No’: how the credit crunch lowered UK productivity

 

Older working papers and published policy work

Independent Commission on Banking: Final Report

Independent Commission on Banking: Interim Report

‘The future of international capital flows’ (2011), (with Will Speller and Michelle Wright), Bank of England FS paper no. 12, featured in VoxEU and Gillian Tett’s FT column

‘Efficient frameworks for sovereign borrowing’ (2008), (with Gregor Irwin), Bank of England working paper no. 343

‘Optimal emerging-market fiscal policy when trend output growth is unobserved’ (2006), Bank of England working paper no. 308

‘Fiscal rules for debt sustainability in emerging markets – the impact of volatility and default risk’ (2006), (with Adrian Penalver), Bank of England working paper no. 307

‘Real world mortgages, consumption volatility and the low inflation environment’ (2005), (with Sebastian Barnes), Bank of England working paper no. 273

‘The Measurement of House Prices’ (2003) (with Rob Wood) Bank of England QB, Spring 2003

 

Education

M.A. Economics, 2000, King’s College, Cambridge

M.Sc Economics, 2001, University College London

PhD Economics, 2015, London School of Economics