Description: Department of Economics

Description: Johannes Spinnewijn

| CV |

| Working Papers|

| In Progress|

| Published Papers |

| Other Publications |

| Teaching|

| Miscellaneous|

| LSE Economics |

| Public Econ at LSE |


Johannes Spinnewijn


Position: Professor of Economics

Research Interests: Public Economics, Social Insurance, Behavioral Economics, Health Economics

Other Positions and Affiliations:

Contact details:



Job Opportunity: Pre-doctoral Research Assistants

  • The Public Finance Group of the Economics Dept at the LSE is hiring full-time pre-doctoral research assistants. Applicants should be completing (or have completed) a Bachelor's or Masters degree and have strong quantitative and programming skills. This position is suitable for people looking to obtain experience in economic research for 1 to 2 years before applying to graduate school in economics. If you would like more information, please visit our website here or see the advert here.


Working Papers

  • The Chronic Disease Index: Analyzing Health Inequalities Over the Lifecycle (with Kaveh Danesh, Jon Kolstad and Will Parker) - Coming soon

  • Abstract: We use rich administrative data in the Netherlands to develop a chronic disease index that measures chronic illness at population scale and over the life-cycle. Measurable chronic disease explains one third of the income gradient in mortality and almost all of the income gradient in healthcare expenditures. Using our chronic disease index, we show that the health gap between income groups arises in early adulthood, only driven by health-based sorting into income, and further diverges throughout adulthood, increasingly driven by differences in biological ageing. We find that employment and location factors contribute most to the chronic health gap throughout life. Health behaviors play a more limited role, especially at younger ages.

  • Risk Scores for Long-Term Unemployment and the Assignment to Job Search Counseling (with Sebastian Ernst and Andreas Mueller) - Jan 2024
  • Prepared for the AEA Papers & Proceedings

    Abstract: This paper analyses how risk-profiling is used to assign unemployed job seekers to job search counseling in Flanders, Belgium. We compare algorithmic selection to self-selection and selection by job search counselors. We discuss practical challenges for the implementation of risk-profiling and highlight avenues for further research. We find that algorithmic assignment is used for only a small fraction of the sample and that job search counselors appear to have valuable private information on job seekers’ re-employment prospects beyond what is captured by the algorithmic risk score.

  • The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection (with Andreas Mueller) - July 2023
  • Revise & Resubmit - Journal of Political Economy

    Abstract: This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple spell outcomes respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects explain most of the observed decline over the unemployment spell, but little of the cyclicality in average job finding. We also find sizeable heterogeneity in the within-individual profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell, but not so over the business cycle. We evaluate the implications of our findings for the value of targeting unemployment policies and how these change over the unemployment spell and the business cycle.


Published Papers


Other Publications


Current Courses Taught

  • Public Economics (PhD, LSE course, ec534)
  • Public Economics (MSc, LSE course, ec426)
  • Public Economics (MPA, LSE course, ec410)


Press Coverage/Other Writings

  • "Met enkele lukrake financiele prikkels redden we het niet" Op-ed in De Standaard / Le Soir (July 9, 2022) (link DS, link LS)
  • "Covid has been a catastrophe. Can it also be an opportunity?" featured in Financial Times (April 2, 2021) (link)
  • "Slechte eigenrisicokeuzes maken de zorgverzekering duurder voor laagopgeleiden" Economische en Statistische Berichten (February 20, 2021) (link)
  • "Job seekers' beliefs and the causes of long-term unemployment" VoxEU (January 29, 2021) (link)
  • "Inequality in choice quality: Evidence from health insurance choices in the Netherlands" VoxEU (November 21, 2020) (link)
  • "Waarom we liever de cijfers dan het buikgevoel laten spreken" Op-ed in De Standaard (August 27, 2019) (link)
  • "Moeten de werkloosheidsuitkeringen toe- of afnemen in de tijd?" Interview in Knack (August 14, 2019) (link)
  • "Uitkeringen zijn geen spelletje hoger/lager" Op-ed in De Standaard (September 24, 2018) (link)
  • "Une baisse plus rapide des allocations est-elle a recommander?" Op-ed in Le Soir (September 24, 2018) (link)
  • "Consumption Data: New Frontiers" VoxEU (April 4, 2018) (link)
  • "Unemployment Insurance and Adverse Selection" VoxEU (February 3, 2018) (link)
  • "Designing Tax Policy in High-Evasion Economies" VoxEU (January 5, 2016) (link), Microeconomic Insights (April 27, 2016) (link)
  • "De mythe van de hangmat" Op-ed in De Standaard (May 15, 2014) (link)
  • "De ivoren toren van economen is een mythe" Op-ed in De Standaard (August 3, 2013) (link)
  • "En als we langdurig werklozen meer zouden betalen?" Op-ed in De Morgen (February 12, 2012) (link)
  • "The Role of Commitment" comment on "On the interaction between subsidiarity and interpersonal solidarity" by Jacques Dreze (link)
  • "Hard cash or a secure job - which is better?" featured in Financial Times (February 7, 2009) (link)


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