Description: Department of Economics

Description: Johannes Spinnewijn

| CV |

| Working Papers|

| In Progress|

| Published Papers |

| Other Publications |

| Teaching|

| Miscellaneous|

| LSE Economics |

| Public Econ at LSE |


Johannes Spinnewijn


Position: Professor of Economics

Research Interests: Public Economics, Social Insurance, Behavioral Economics, Health Economics

Other Positions and Affiliations:

Contact details:



Job Opportunity: Pre-doctoral Research Assistants

  • The Public Finance Group of the Economics Dept at the LSE is hiring full-time pre-doctoral research assistants. Applicants should be completing (or have completed) a Bachelor's or Masters degree and have strong quantitative and programming skills. This position is suitable for people looking to obtain experience in economic research for 1 to 2 years before applying to graduate school in economics. If you would like more information, please visit our website here or see the advert here.


Working Papers

  • The Chronic Disease Index: Analyzing Health Inequalities Over the Lifecycle (with Kaveh Danesh, Jon Kolstad and Will Parker) - May 2024

  • Abstract: The rich live longer than the poor, but relatively little is known about the evolution of health inequality across the lifecycle. Using rich administrative data from the Netherlands, we develop an index of chronic disease burden based on the projected contribution to old-age mortality. Chronic conditions account for one-third of the mortality gap in old age. Using our index we demonstrate that health inequality arises much earlier in life; by age 35, the bottom half of the income distribution has the same disease burden as those aged 50 in the top half. Approximately 60% of the divergence across income groups is due to low-income individuals developing chronic illness at a faster rate, rather than chronically ill individuals sorting into lower-income groups. Using linked health survey data, we then examine the contributions of various mediators to the incidence of chronic diseases over the life-cycle. Socio-economic and geographic factors explain most of the variation, while individual health behaviors play a moderate role. Our findings align with calls to target health policies toward early-life social determinants of health.

  • The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection (with Andreas Mueller) - June 2024
  • Revise & Resubmit - Journal of Political Economy

    Abstract: This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple spell outcomes respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the decline in average job finding over the unemployment spell, but little of its cyclicality. We also find sizeable heterogeneity in the profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell, but not so over the business cycle.


Published Papers


Other Publications


Current Courses Taught

  • Public Economics (PhD, LSE course, ec534)
  • Public Economics (MSc, LSE course, ec426)
  • Public Economics (MPA, LSE course, ec410)


Press Coverage/Other Writings

  • "Met enkele lukrake financiele prikkels redden we het niet" Op-ed in De Standaard / Le Soir (July 9, 2022) (link DS, link LS)
  • "Covid has been a catastrophe. Can it also be an opportunity?" featured in Financial Times (April 2, 2021) (link)
  • "Slechte eigenrisicokeuzes maken de zorgverzekering duurder voor laagopgeleiden" Economische en Statistische Berichten (February 20, 2021) (link)
  • "Job seekers' beliefs and the causes of long-term unemployment" VoxEU (January 29, 2021) (link)
  • "Inequality in choice quality: Evidence from health insurance choices in the Netherlands" VoxEU (November 21, 2020) (link)
  • "Waarom we liever de cijfers dan het buikgevoel laten spreken" Op-ed in De Standaard (August 27, 2019) (link)
  • "Moeten de werkloosheidsuitkeringen toe- of afnemen in de tijd?" Interview in Knack (August 14, 2019) (link)
  • "Uitkeringen zijn geen spelletje hoger/lager" Op-ed in De Standaard (September 24, 2018) (link)
  • "Une baisse plus rapide des allocations est-elle a recommander?" Op-ed in Le Soir (September 24, 2018) (link)
  • "Consumption Data: New Frontiers" VoxEU (April 4, 2018) (link)
  • "Unemployment Insurance and Adverse Selection" VoxEU (February 3, 2018) (link)
  • "Designing Tax Policy in High-Evasion Economies" VoxEU (January 5, 2016) (link), Microeconomic Insights (April 27, 2016) (link)
  • "De mythe van de hangmat" Op-ed in De Standaard (May 15, 2014) (link)
  • "De ivoren toren van economen is een mythe" Op-ed in De Standaard (August 3, 2013) (link)
  • "En als we langdurig werklozen meer zouden betalen?" Op-ed in De Morgen (February 12, 2012) (link)
  • "The Role of Commitment" comment on "On the interaction between subsidiarity and interpersonal solidarity" by Jacques Dreze (link)
  • "Hard cash or a secure job - which is better?" featured in Financial Times (February 7, 2009) (link)


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