Ambiguity Attitudes, Framing, and Consistency: Data and Analysis

Alex Voorhoeve, Ken Binmore, Arnaldur S. Stefansson, and Lisa Stewart


We use probability-matching variations on Ellsberg’s single-urn experiment to assess both the sensitivity of ambiguity attitudes to framing and the consistency with which subjects display these attitudes within a single frame. Contrary to most other studies, we find very little change in ambiguity attitudes due to a switch from a gain to a loss frame; we also find that making ambiguity easier to recognize has little effect. Regarding consistency, we find that 28% of subjects are highly inconsistent choosers; roughly the same share are highly consistent. Ambiguity attitudes depend on consistency: ambiguity seeking is much more frequent among inconsistent choosers; consistent choosers are much more likely to be ambiguity neutral.


Web appendix: further analysis

Instructions and sample questions

Excel datasheet and analysis

Supplementary excel sheet for comparison of rounds 1 and 4

Model for Version GI3 (as an example of the model used).