papers on unemployment and aggregate labour markets

the causes and consequences of long-term unemployment in europe (with s.machin).

survey of the literature on long-term unemployment in europe. argues that europe does not have a specific problem with getting the long-term unemployed back to work, it has a problem with getting anyone back to work. also the position of the ong-term unemployed relative to the short-term unemployed has not worsened over time

shifts in the demand and supply of skills in the oecd (with marco manacorda).

develops a measure of the gap between the demand and the supply of skills that is invariant to the way in which education is measured. applies this to data for us, uk, france, germany, italy and the netherlands arguing that only the us and uk show any evidence of a rise in the gap between the demand for and supply of skills

wage bargaining and the phillips curve: the specification and identification of aggregate wage equations.

download derivation of elasticities mentioned in paper

argues that traditional way of estimating aggregate wage equations is not identified. but that one can identify all the parameters of interest if one specifies the wage equation correctly and this means going back to the phillips curve

wage-setting, productivity growth and unemployment

cep discussion paper no. 63, 1990 download discussion paper
argues that productivity slowdown can explain part of rise in unemployment in 1970s and 1980s. i always liked this paper but no-one else did so it was never published. though seems to be a more popular idea again in recent years

multiple equilibria in the british labour market: some empirical evidence.

or (if you can afford it) access through sciencedirect

shows that increasing returns are a sufficient condition are there to be multiple equilibria in standard models of unemployment. then estimates such a model for the uk and argues that uk shifted from a low unemployment equilibrium to a high unemployment equilibrium in the 1980s. cute idea but does anyone take it seriously? probably not, and rightly so.

imperfect competition, multiple equilibria and unemployment policy", economic journal conference papers, 1990, 100, 151-162.

purely theoretical version of the model of the previous paper with some seriously dubious application to unemployment policy.

skill-biased change, unemployment and inequality (with p.gregg).

or (if you can afford it) access through sciencedirect

theoretical model of how one could incorporate skill-biased change into standard models of unemployment. argues that policies towards the supply of skills are likely to be more important than market labour institutions in the long-run

developments in labour market theory and their implications for macroeconomic policy

a survey of the layard-nickell type models of the unemployment rate

labour market regulation and unemployment (with p.gregg)

argues that the implicit attitude of many policy-makers that anything that reduces wages is likely to reduce unemployment has little foundation in economic theory and discusses the factors that would make wage-raising policies desirable

on the persistence of unemployment(with g.alogoskoufis).

a long time ago labour economists used to go on and on about hysteresis and that the dominance of insiders in wage-setting in europe imparted more persistence to european unemployment rates. this paper argues that the source of persistence in european unemployment lies elsewhere though i can't remember exactly where for the life of me

wage-setting and unemployment persistence in europe, japan and the usa (with g.alogoskoufis).

rudimentary, but shorter, version of the previous paper