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Johannes Spinnewijn
Position: Professor of Economics
Research
Interests:
Public Economics, Social Insurance, Behavioral Economics, Health Economics
Other Positions and Affiliations:
Contact details:
Job Opportunity: Pre-doctoral Research Assistants
- The Public Finance Group of the Economics Dept at the LSE is hiring full-time pre-doctoral research assistants. Applicants should be completing (or have completed) a Bachelor's or Masters degree and have strong quantitative and programming skills. This position is suitable for people looking to obtain experience in economic research for 1 to 2 years before applying to graduate school in economics. If you would like more information, please visit our website here or see the advert here.
- The Chronic Disease Index: Analyzing Health Inequalities Over the Lifecycle (with Kaveh Danesh, Jon Kolstad and Will Parker) - Coming soon
Abstract: We use rich administrative data in the Netherlands to develop a chronic disease index that measures chronic illness at population scale and over the life-cycle. Measurable chronic disease explains one third of the income gradient in mortality and almost all of the income gradient in healthcare expenditures. Using our chronic disease index, we show that the health gap between income groups arises in early adulthood, only driven by health-based sorting into income, and further diverges throughout adulthood, increasingly driven by differences in biological ageing. We find that employment and location factors contribute most to the chronic health gap throughout life. Health behaviors play a more limited role, especially at younger ages.
- Risk Scores for Long-Term Unemployment and the Assignment to Job Search Counseling (with Sebastian Ernst and Andreas Mueller) - Jan 2024
Prepared for the AEA Papers & Proceedings
Abstract: This paper analyses how risk-profiling is used to assign unemployed job seekers to job search counseling in Flanders, Belgium. We compare algorithmic selection to self-selection and selection by job search counselors. We discuss practical challenges for the implementation of risk-profiling and highlight avenues for further research. We find that algorithmic assignment is used for only a small fraction of the sample and that job search counselors appear to have valuable private information on job seekers’ re-employment prospects beyond what is captured by the algorithmic risk score.
- The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity and Selection (with Andreas Mueller) - July 2023
Revise & Resubmit - Journal of Political Economy
Abstract: This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple spell outcomes respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects explain most of the observed decline over the unemployment spell, but little of the cyclicality in average job finding. We also find sizeable heterogeneity in the within-individual profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell, but not so over the business cycle. We evaluate the implications of our findings for the value of targeting unemployment policies and how these change over the unemployment spell and the business cycle.
- The Socio-Economic Distribution of Choice Quality: Evidence from Health Insurance in the Netherlands (with Ben Handel, Jonathan Kolstad and Thomas Minten) - Long WP version; VoxEU; ESB, NYTimes, NRC, Financieel Dagblad
Forthcoming in the American Economic Review: Insights
- Retirement Consumption and Pension Design (with Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais and Daniel Reck) - VoxEU; De Standaard, Le Soir
American Economic Review, 114 (1), 89-133. January 2024.
- The Value of Unemployment Insurance (with Camille Landais)
Review of Economic Studies 88 (6), 3041-3085. November 2021.
- The Income Gradient in Mortality during the Covid-19 Crisis: Evidence from Belgium (with Andre Decoster and Thomas Minten) - Leuvense Economisch Standpunten; Knack
Journal of Economic Inequality - Special Issue on Covid-19, 551-570. September 2021.
- How to Improve Tax Compliance? Evidence from Population-wide Experiments in Belgium (with Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, Clement Imbert, Teodora Tsankova and Maarten Luts) - VoxEU; De Standaard, De Morgen
Journal of Political Economy 129 (5), 1425–1463. May 2021.
- Risk-based Selection in Unemployment Insurance: Evidence and Implications (with Camille Landais, Arash Nekoei, Peter Nilsson and David Seim) - VoxEU
American Economic Review 111 (4), 1315-1355, April 2021.
- Inferring Risk Perceptions and Preferences using Choice from Insurance Menus: Theory and Evidence (with Keith Ericson, Philipp Kircher and Amanda Starc)
Economic Journal 131 (634), 713-744 - Featured Article. February 2021.
- Job Seekers' Perceptions and Employment Prospects: Heterogeneity, Duration Dependence and Bias (with Andreas Mueller and Giorgio Topa) - Slides; NBER Digest, VoxEU
American Economic Review 111 (1), 324-364. January 2021.
- The Value of Registry Data for Consumption Analysis: An Application to Health Shocks (with Jonas Kolsrud and Camille Landais) - VoxEU
Journal of Public Economics 189, 1040-1088. September 2020.
- Information Frictions and Adverse Selection: Policy Interventions in Health Insurance Markets (with Ben Handel and
Jonathan Kolstad)
Review of Economics and Statistics 101(2), 326-340. May 2019.
- The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden (with Jonas Kolsrud, Camille Landais and Peter Nilsson) - Slides;
Microeconomic Insights, Leuvense Economisch Standpunten; Le Soir, De Standaard
American Economic Review 108(4-5), 985-1033. April 2018.
- Heterogeneity,
Demand for Insurance and Adverse Selection - Web Appendix
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 9(1), 308-343. February 2017.
- Rewarding Schooling Success and Perceived Returns to Education: Evidence from India (with Sandra Sequeira and Guo Xu)
Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 131, 373-392. November 2016.
- Production vs. Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan (with Anne Brockmeyer, Michael Best, Henrik Kleven, and Mazhar Waseem) - Slides; VoxEU;
Microeconomic Insights
Journal of Political Economy 123(6), 1311-1355. December 2015.
- Revising Claims and Resisting Ultimatums in
Bargaining Games (with Frans Spinnewyn)
Review of Economic Design 19(2), 91-116. June 2015.
- Unemployed but Optimistic: Optimal Insurance
Design with Biased Beliefs
Journal of the European Economic Association 13(1), 130-167. February 2015.
- Delay and Deadlines: Freeriding and Information Revelation in Partnerships
(with Arthur Campbell and Florian Ederer)
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 6(2), 163-204. May 2014.
- Insurance and Perceptions: How to Screen Optimists
and Pessimists
Economic Journal 123, 606-633 - Awarded with Austin Robinson Memorial Prize. June 2013.
- Training and Search During Unemployment
Journal of Public Economics 99, 49-65. March 2013.
- Capital Income Taxes with Heterogeneous Discount
Rates (with Peter
Diamond)
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 3(4), 52-76. November 2011.
- Public
Economics (PhD, LSE course, ec534)
- Public
Economics (MSc, LSE course, ec426)
- Public
Economics (MPA, LSE course, ec410)
- "Met enkele lukrake financiele prikkels redden we het niet" Op-ed in De Standaard / Le Soir (July 9, 2022) (link DS, link LS)
- "Covid has been a catastrophe. Can it also be an opportunity?" featured in Financial
Times (April 2, 2021) (link)
- "Slechte eigenrisicokeuzes maken de zorgverzekering duurder voor laagopgeleiden" Economische en Statistische Berichten (February 20, 2021) (link)
- "Job seekers' beliefs and the causes of long-term unemployment" VoxEU (January 29, 2021) (link)
- "Inequality in choice quality: Evidence from health insurance choices in the Netherlands" VoxEU (November 21, 2020) (link)
- "Waarom we liever de cijfers dan het buikgevoel laten spreken" Op-ed in De Standaard (August 27, 2019) (link)
- "Moeten de werkloosheidsuitkeringen toe- of afnemen in de tijd?" Interview in Knack (August 14, 2019) (link)
- "Uitkeringen zijn geen spelletje hoger/lager" Op-ed in De Standaard (September 24, 2018) (link)
- "Une baisse plus rapide des allocations est-elle a recommander?" Op-ed in Le Soir (September 24, 2018) (link)
- "Consumption Data: New Frontiers" VoxEU (April 4, 2018) (link)
- "Unemployment Insurance and Adverse Selection" VoxEU (February 3, 2018) (link)
- "Designing Tax Policy in High-Evasion Economies" VoxEU (January 5, 2016) (link), Microeconomic Insights (April 27, 2016) (link)
- "De mythe van de hangmat" Op-ed in De Standaard (May 15, 2014) (link)
- "De ivoren toren van economen is een mythe" Op-ed in De Standaard (August 3, 2013) (link)
- "En als we langdurig werklozen meer zouden betalen?" Op-ed in De Morgen (February 12, 2012) (link)
- "The Role of Commitment" comment on "On the interaction between
subsidiarity and interpersonal solidarity" by Jacques Dreze (link)
- "Hard cash or a secure job - which is better?" featured in Financial
Times (February 7, 2009) (link)
© 2023 London School of Economics. All rights reserved. Picture by Hatim Kaghat.
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