Education
Ph.D., Harvard University, 2002. (Advisors: A. Alesina, R. Barro - chair - and K. Rogoff.)
M.A., Harvard University, 1999.
B.A., Universidad Nacional de Tucuman, Argentina, 1997.
Contact: s.tenreyro[at]LSE.ac.uk
If you have questions about "The Log of Gravity", please click here
Published, Forthcoming and Accepted Academic Papers
Dollar
Dominance and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Joint with
Michael McLeay. Forthcoming at the
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2025.
Negative
Rates and the Effective Lower Bound: Theory and Evidence
Joint with
Michael McLeay and Lukas von dem Berge. Accepted for publication at the
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2025.
The Rise in
Agribusinesses and its Distributional Consequences
Joint with
Swati Dhingra.
Conditionally accepted at the Journal of
Political Economy: Macroeconomics, 2025.
The Brexit Vote,
Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom
Joint with Ben Broadbent, Thomas Drechsel, Federico DiPace and
Richard Harrison. The
Review of Economic Studies,
Volume 91, Issue 4, July 2024, Pages 2104–2134.
Helicopter Money: What
is it and what does it do?
Joint with
Ricardo Reis, Annual Review of Economics,
14(1), 313-335, August 2022.
Climate-Change
Pledges, Actions and Outcomes
Joint with Tiloka De-Silva. Journal
of the European Economic Association, Volume
19, Issue 6, December 2021, Pages 2958–2991.
Slides Data
and replication files
Diversification through Trade
Joint with Francesco Caselli, Miklos Koren, and Milan Lisicky. The
Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume
135, Issue 1, February 2020, Pages 449–502.
MATLAB files for scenario analyses.
History Dependence
in the Housing Market
Joint with Philippe Bracke. American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol.
13 (2), April 2021, Pages 420-43.
Optimal
Inflation and the Phillips Curve
Joint with Michael McLeay. NBER Macroeconomics
Annual 2020, 34 (1).
Pages 199-255. Martin Eichenbaum,
Erik Hurst and Jonathan Parker, eds.
Monetary Policy
for Commodity Booms and Busts
Joint with Thomas Drechsel and Michael McLeay. Federal Reserve Bank
of Kansas City's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2019.
The Transmission of Monetary
Policy Operations through Redistributions and Durable Purchases
Joint with Vincent Sterk. Journal
of Monetary Economics, Vol. 99, November 2018. Pages
124-137.
Commodity Booms
and Busts in Emerging Economies
Joint with Thomas Drechsel. Journal of International
Economics, Vol.
112, May 2018. Pages 200-218.
Population-Control Policies and Fertility
Convergence
Joint with Tiloka De-Silva. Journal of Economic Perspectives,
Fall 2017. Vol 31, Number 31. Pages 205-228.
Pushing on a String:
US Monetary Policy is Less Powerful in Recessions
Joint with Gregory Thwaites. American
Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, October 2016. Volume 8, Number 4.
Pages 43-74.
Data Set used in "Pushing on a String": Extended Series of Romer and Romer's
shocks 1969-2007 by
Thwaites and Tenreyro.
Trading Partners and Trading Flows:
Implementing the Helpman-Melitz-Rubinstein Model Empirically
Joint with
J.M.C. Santos Silva. Oxford
Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, February 2015,
Testing competing
models for non-negative data with many zeros
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva and Frank Windmeijer. Journal
of Econometric Methods, January 2015, Volume 4.
Pages 1-18.
Hot and Cold
Seasons in the Housing Market
Joint with Rachel Ngai. The
American Economic Review, December 2014, Volume 104, Issue 12. Pages 2991-1026.
Estimating the
Extensive Margin of Trade
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva and
Kehai Wei. Journal of International Economics, 2014,
Volume 93, Issue 1. Pages 67-75.
Technological
Diversification
Joint with Miklos Koren. The
American Economic Review, February 2013, Volume 103,
Issue 1. Pages 378-414.
Supplemental
Appendix
Wage-Setting
Patterns and Monetary Policy: International Evidence
Joint with Giovanni Olivei. Journal
of Monetary Economics, October 2010, Volume 57, Issue 7. Pages 785-802
*Data discussion: microeconomic evidence of
wage rigidity in the United States, Europe, and Japan.
Currency Unions in
Prospect and Retrospect
Joint with
J.M.C. Santos Silva. Annual
Review of Economics, September
2010, Volume 2, Pages 51-74.
Supplemental
Appendix to "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect"
On the Existence
of the Maximum Likelihood Estimates for Poisson Regression
Joint
with J.M.C. Santos Silva. Economics
Letters,
May 2010, Volume 107, Issue 2. Pages 310-312.
The Timing of
Monetary Policy Shocks
Joint with Giovanni Olivei. The American Economic
Review, June
2007, Volume 97,
No. 3: 636-663.
*Data contribution: The paper reports results from
new survey-based evidence of wage rigidity in the U.S. economy, part
of which was collected in the context of the Beige Book.
Volatility
and Development
Joint with Miklos Koren. The
Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2007, Volume 122, No. 1:
243-287.
On the Trade
Impact of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility, Journal of Development Economics, March
2007, Volume 82, No. 2: 485-508.
The Log of Gravity
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. The
Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2006, Volume 88, No. 4:
641-658.
Previously circulated as Gravity-Defying Trade;
FRB Boston Series, paper no. 03-1 (2003).
For other
questions, data, and codes, please, check the paper's page here
Closed and Open
Economy Models of Marked Up and Sticky Prices
Joint with Robert Barro. The Economic Journal, April
2006, Vol. 116, No. 511: 434-456.
Economic
Effects of Currency Unions
Joint with Robert Barro. Economic
Inquiry, January 2007, Vol. 45, No. 1: 1-197.
Is Poland the Next
Spain?
Joint with Francesco Caselli. NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics;
R. Clarida, J. Frankel, and F. Giavazzi, editors, 2004.
Optimal
Currency Areas
Joint with Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro. NBER
Macroeconomics Annual, Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, eds.
Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.
Working Papers
Unconventional Policy Tools at the Fed: Lessons
from Theory and Evidence
Joint with Mo Wazzi
Abstract: This
paper assesses the Federal Reserve’s use of forward guidance and large scale
asset purchases as part of its monetary policy toolkit, with a view toward
informing its 2025 monetary policy strategy review. While drawing on the
Fed’s recent experience, the paper does not focus on the appropriateness of
the policy stance, but on the tools themselves—their design, transmission
mechanisms, and effectiveness under different economic conditions. It
highlights crucial design trade-offs and examines lessons for the future.
One key conclusion is that stress testing the tools before their
implementation, for instance using scenario analysis, could help manage the
trade-offs between commitment and flexibility inherent in these tools’
design, increasing policy robustness.
Trade
Fragmentation, Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy
Joint with Ludovica Ambrosino and Jenny Chan
Abstract: How
does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response
of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To answer these
questions, we develop a heterogeneous agent, open-economy model featuring
imperfect international risk-sharing. The model captures both the demand and
supply side effects of fragmentation. It illustrates how the impact of
fragmentation on inflationary pressures and the appropriate policy response
depend not only on the direct effect of higher import prices on supply but,
crucially, on how aggregate demand adjusts in response to lower real incomes
and productivity stemming from fragmentation.
by monetary policy.
Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange
Rate Regimes in Commodity-exposed Economies
Joint with Thomas Drechsel, Michael McLeay and Enrico Turri
Abstract: Is
the inflation targeting framework, combined with flexible exchange rates,
suitable for an environment with commodity price swings? Are there
circumstances in which a fixed exchange rate regime or managed float are
beneficial? We study these perennial questions from the perspective of
economies that have different exposures to commodity trade. We develop a
flexible but tractable model for an economy that imports and/or exports
commodities; moreover, in line with empirical evidence, we allow
international borrowing conditions to vary endogenously with the commodity
cycle, which gives rise to additional costs and benefits of active exchange
rate management. By varying the economy’s commodity exposure along these
dimensions, we analyze the implied volatility of inflation and activity
under different policy rules and derive optimal monetary policy. We find
that the desirability of alternative policy configurations critically
depends on the economy’s specific commodity exposure. Nonetheless, some form
of inflation targeting tends to perform well in a relatively wide range of
macroeconomic environments.
The Rise in
Agribusinesses and its Distributional Consequences
Joint with
Swati Dhingra
Abstract: Crops
are often modelled as homogenous products that are exchanged in perfectly
competitive markets. While this may be true of world commodity markets,
smallholder farmers face high trade barriers in selling their crops at home
and abroad. Smallholder farmers can overcome these barriers by selling to
agribusinesses with better intermediation technologies. This has provided a
rationale for policies encouraging agribusinesses. However, the rise of
agribusinesses also skews the distribution of buyers of farm produce towards
larger firms with greater buyer power. This paper documents the reliance of
farmers on intermediaries and shows that farmers selling to agribusinesses
differ systematically from others. We incorporate these stylised facts into
a flexible theoretical framework to study the aggregate and distributional
consequences of the rise of agribusinesses. Taking the theory to data, we
quantify behind-the-border barriers to trade embedded in a national policy
to encourage agribusiness participation. We combine this with microdata on
household-crop incomes and find that the policy led to a reduction in
incomes of small farmers. Losses were concentrated among farmers who sold to
agribusinesses and in villages with a comparative advantage in
policy-affected crops. On average, their incomes fell by 6 per cent with no
offsetting gains in non-farm channels of income. Profit margins of
agribusinesses specialised in policy-affected crops rose, in line with the
theoretical channel. The findings contribute to the academic and policy
debate on the impact of integration and market power on the size and
distribution of the welfare gains from trade.
Unequal Migration
Joint with
Rebecca Freeman, John Lewis, JMC Santos Silva and Stefan Szymanski
Abstract:
The Balance of
Power: monopsony, unions, and wages in the United Kingdom
Joint with Will
Abel and Greg Thwaites
Abstract: We
document the evolution of labour market concentration in the UK private
sector labour market from 1998-2018, how labour unions have counterbalanced
this power, and the net effect on wages. Using linked employee- rm
micro-data, we find that: (1) Measures of labour market concentration have
not exhibited a time trend over the time period examined. (2) There is
substantial cross-sectional variation in concentration at the industry
level. (3) Higher levels of labour market concentration are associated with
lower pay amongst workers not covered by a collective bargaining agreement.
(4) For workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, the
association between labour market concentration and pay disappears. (5) The
effects of concentration and union coverage are generally larger for
lower-paid workers, and workers in tradable industries. (6) Collective
bargaining agreements weaken the impact of workers' outside options in other
labour markets, which nonetheless remain strong.
D
Riksbank
Research Evaluation Report, with Elena Carletti and Frank Smets,
January
2025.
Report on the ECB Monetary Policy Stance, prepared for the European Parliament, November 2024.
Geneva Report 2023. The Art and Science of Patience: Relative Prices and Inflation, joint with V. Guerrieri, M. Marcussen, and L. Reichlin. CEPR, 2023.
Monetary Policy in the Face of Large Shocks, Resolution Foundation. Policy speech, June 2023.
Monetary Policy in the Face of Supply Shocks: The Role of Expectations, joint with N. Bandera, L. Barnes, M. Chavaz and L. von dem Berge. Sintra, June 2023.
Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening, Royal Economic Society, Glasgow University. Policy speech, April 2023.
The Path to 2 percent, Society of Professional Economists. Policy speech, November 2022.
The Economy and Policy Tradeoffs, Economic Research Council. Policy speech, March 2022.
International Trade, Global-Supply Chains and Monetary Policy, CEPR webinar. Policy speech, October 2021.
Economic Challenges to Latin America from the Pandemic, Guido Di Tella Memorial Lecture, Latin American Centre, Oxford University, May 2021. Slides
Response to
the Covid-19 pandemic: UK and US experiences, San
Francisco Fed Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Conference. Policy
speech, March 2021.
Let's Talk
about Negative Rates, UWE
Bristol Webinar. Policy speech, January 2021.
Monetary
policy during pandemics: inflation before, during and after Covid-19, Bank
of England Webinar. Policy speech, April 2020.
Monetary
Policy and Open Questions in International Macroeconomics, John
Flemming Lecture. Policy speech, 2019.
Understanding Inflation: Expectations and Reality, Ronald
Tress Memorial Lecture, Birckbeck College.
The Elusive Supply Potential: Monetary Policy in Times of Uncertainty, Glasgow, Policy speech, 2019.
Models in Macroeconomics, University of Surrey. Policy speech, 2018.
The Fall in Productivity Growth: Causes and Implications, Peston Lecture QMU. Policy speech, 2018.
Report on Gender Balance in UK Economics Departments and Research Institutes, written for the Royal Economic Society, 2017.
Notes and Other Publications
The Log of Gravity
at 15
Joint with JMC Santos Silva. Forthcoming, Portuguese
Economic Journal, 2022.
Currency Unions, in Gerard Caprio Jr. (ed.), The
Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, Academic Press: San
Diego, Chapter 31. Pages 451-461, 2013.
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva.
Volatility,
Diversification and Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council
Countries
Joint with
Miklos Koren. The
Transformation of the Gulf: Politics, Economics and the Global Order, David
Held and Kristian
Ulrichsen,
eds. 2011.
poisson: Some
Convergence Issues
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. The Stata Journal, 2011, Vol. 11 No. 2:
207-212.
Has the Euro
Increased Trade?
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. CentrePiece,
15(2).
Booms and Busts in Argentina from the 1900s: Data Analysis and a Policy Proposal (slides)
The Argentine Debt Crisis in Retrospect
Some loud thoughts on Argentina, the IMF, Greece...
Reply to "The Log
of Gravity Revisited"
Joint with J.M.C.
Santos-Silva, January 2009
For other
questions, data, and codes, please, check the Log-of-Gravity page here
Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation, by Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff and Pierre Yared, Brookings BPEA 2024.
Firms’ Inflation Expectation Pass-Through into Prices and Wages:
Evidence from an RCT Survey, by
Klaus
Abberger, Anne Kathrin Funk, Michael Lamla, Sarah Lein and Stefanie
Siegrist, Bank of Spain 2023.
Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space, by Matthew Delventhal, Jesus Fernandez Villaverde and Nezih Guner, CEPR 2020.
The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty, by Tarek Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent and Ahmed Tahoun, NBER SI 2020.
Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool? by Olivier Coibion, Yuryi Gorodnichenko, Mathieu Pedemonte and Saten Kumar, 2019.
Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve, by Roger Farmer and Giovanni Nicolo, 2019.
DSGE Models: Theory and Empirics, Nobel Symposium presentations by Martin Eichenbaum and Harald Uhlig, 2018.
The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Co-movement, by Julian Di Giovanni and Andrei Levchenko. NBER SI 2016.
Does Finance Benefit Society? by Luigi Zingales. Banque de France, Paris 2015
Insider Outsider Labour Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy, by Jordi Gali. Oxford 2015.
Specialization Patterns in International Trade, by Walter Steingress. London 2015.
Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Shocks, by Fernando Alvarez, Francesco Lippi, and Herbe Le Bihan. Fondation Banque de France, Paris 2014.
Segmented Housing Markets, by Monika Piazzesi, Martin Schneider, and Johannes Stroebel. LBS, London 2013.
Macroeconomic Performance during Commodity Prices Booms, by Luis Cespedes and Andres Velasco, IMF Res conference, Istanbul 2012.
Economic Integration and Structural Change, by Jean Imbs and Romain Wacziarg, CEPR, Paris 2012.
Non-uniform Wage Staggering: European Evidence and Monetary Policy Implications, by Julliard, Le Bihan, and Millard, 2011.
Low Interest Rates and Housing Booms: the Role of Capital Inflows, Monetary Policy and Financial Innovation, by Filipa Sa, Pascal Towbin and Tomasz Wieladek. LBS, London 2011.
International Differences in Fiscal Policy, by Agustin Benetrix and Philip Lane. NBER TAPES conference, 2010.
From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons, by Miguel Alumnia, Agustin Benetrix, Barry Eichengreen, Patrick O'Rourke and Gisella Rua, 2010. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.
Subprime-Related Losses and Board In-Competence: Private vs. Public Banks in Germany, by Harald Hau and Marcel Thum, 2009. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.
The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade, (slides) by Jeff Frankel (2008). Forthcoming in NBER volume, edited by Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi. MIT Press.
Productivity and the Dollar, by Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc. ESSIM, Izmir 2007.
Do Exports Generate
Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia, by Jan DeLoecker. CEPR,
Alghero 2004.
Relative Prices
and Relative Prosperity , by Chang-Tai
Hsieh and Peter Klenow. NBER SI, Cambridge, MA 2003.
Globalization and
Inflation, by Natalie Chen, Jean Imbs, and Andrew Scott. CEPR, Rome
2003.
Exchange Rate
Volatility and the Composition of Trade, by Christian Broda and John
Romalis. Federal Reserve Bank, 2003.
The Effect of Common
Currencies on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis, by Andy Rose.
Harvard, Cambridge MA 2002.
Latin American Insecurity, by Dany Rodrik, with Mariano Tomassi. New York 2000.
EC442 Macroeconomics for PhD-MRes students
EC413