Welcome to Silvana Tenreyro's Web page     

Current Positions

Professor, Department of Economics, London School of Economics.

Co-Director, Review of Economic Studies Ltd.

Chair, Royal Economic Society's Women in Economics Committee

Member of the Editorial Board, Review of Economic Studies

Council Member of the Royal Economic Society

Programme Leader, CfM

Research Associate, CEP

Research Fellow, CEPR

 

Curriculum Vitae (pdf)

 

Education

Ph.D., Harvard University, 2002. (Advisors: A. Alesina, R. Barro--chair, K. Rogoff.) 

M.A., Harvard University, 1999.

A.B., Universidad Nacional de Tucuman, Argentina, 1997.

 

Contact: s.tenreyro[at]LSE.ac.uk

If you have questions about "The Log of Gravity", please click here

 

 

Published and Forthcoming Academic Papers 

  • Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy is Less Powerful in Recessions
    Joint with Gregory Thwaites, forthcoming, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics      
    Data Set used in "Pushing on a String": Extended Series of Romer and Romer's shocks 1969-2007     by Thwaites and Tenreyro.

  • Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market
    Joint with Rachel Ngai. The American Economic Review, December 2014, Volume 104, Issue 12. Pages 2991-1026.

  • Technological Diversification
    Joint with Miklos Koren. The American Economic Review, February 2013, Volume 103, Issue 1. Pages 378-414.
     Supplemental Appendix

  • Estimating the Extensive Margin of Trade  
     Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva and Kehai Wei. Forthcoming Journal of International Economics 2014.

  • Trading Partners and Trading Flows: Implementing the Helpman-Melitz-Rubinstein Model Empirically
     Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva    . Forthcoming Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2014.

  • Testing competing models for non-negative data with many zeros,
    Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva and Frank Windmeijer. Forthcoming Journal of Econometric Methods, 2014

  • Further Simulation Evidence on the Performance of the Poisson-PML Estimator
     Joint with J.M.C. Santos-Silva. Economics Letters, August 2011, Volume 112, Issue 2. Pages 220–222.
     

  • Wage-Setting Patterns and Monetary Policy: International Evidence
    Joint with Giovanni Olivei. Journal of Monetary Economics, October  2010, Volume 57, Issue 7. Pages 785-802
     *Data discussion: microeconomic evidence of wage rigidity in the United States, Europe, and Japan.

  • Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect
     Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. Annual Review of Economics,  September 2010, Volume 2, Pages 51-74.
     Supplemental Appendix to "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect"

  • On the Existence of the Maximum Likelihood Estimates for Poisson Regression
     Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. Economics Letters, May 2010, Volume 107, Issue 2.  Pages 310-312.

  • The Timing of Monetary Policy Shocks
    Joint with Giovanni Olivei. The American Economic Review,     June 2007, Volume 97, No. 3: 636-663.
    *Data contribution: The paper reports results from new survey-based evidence of wage rigidity in the U.S. economy,  part of which was collected in the context of the Beige Book.
     

  • Volatility and Development
    Joint with Miklos Koren. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2007, Volume 122, No. 1: 243-287.
     

  • On the Trade Impact of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility

    Journal of Development Economics, March 2007, Volume 82, No. 2: 485-508

  • The Log of Gravity
    Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 2006, Volume 88, No. 4: 641-658.

    Previously circulated as Gravity-Defying Trade; FRB Boston Series, paper no. 03-1 (2003).
    For other questions, data, and codes, please, check the paper's page here

  • Closed and Open Economy Models of Marked Up and Sticky Prices
    Joint with Robert Barro. The Economic Journal, April 2006, Vol. 116, No. 511: 434-456.

  •  Economic Effects of Currency Unions
    Joint with Robert Barro. Economic Inquiry, January 2007, Vol. 45, No. 1: 1-197.
     

  • Is Poland the Next Spain?  
    Joint with Francesco Caselli. NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics; R. Clarida, J. Frankel, and F. Giavazzi, editors, 2004.

     

  •  Optimal Currency Areas
    Joint with Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, eds. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.

    •

 

Other Publications

  • Chapter 31: Currency Unions, in Gerard Caprio Jr. (ed.), The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, Academic Press: San Diego, Pages 451-461, 2013.
    Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva.

  • Volatility, Diversification and Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
     Joint with Miklos Koren.     The Transformation of the Gulf: Politics, Economics and the Global Order, David Held and Kristian Ulrichsen, eds. 2011.

  • poisson: Some Convergence Issues
    Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. The Stata Journal, 2011, Vol. 11 No. 2: 207-212.

  • Has the Euro Increased Trade?
    Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. CentrePiece, 15(2).
     

Working Papers

  • Diversification through Trade, revise and resubmit, Quarterly Journal of Economics
     Joint with Francesco Caselli, Miklos Koren, and Milan Lisicky

    Abstract: Existing wisdom links increased openness to trade to greater macroeconomic volatility, as trade induces a country to specialize, increasing its exposure to sector-specific shocks. Evidence suggests, however, that country-wide shocks are at least as important as sectoral shocks in shaping volatility patterns. We argue that if country-wide shocks are dominant, the impact of trade on volatility can be negative, because trade becomes a source of diversification. For example, trade allows domestic goods producers to respond to shocks to the domestic supply chain by shifting sourcing abroad. Similarly, when a country has multiple trading partners, a domestic recession or a recession in any one of the trading partners translates into a smaller demand shock for its producers than when trade is more limited. Using a calibrated version of the Eaton-Kortum and Alvarez-Lucas model, we quantitatively assess the impact of lower trade barriers on volatility since the 1970s in a broad group of countries.

  • History Dependence in the Housing Market
    Joint with Philippe Bracke

    Abstract: Using the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales in the last twenty years, we document a robust pattern of history dependence in housing markets. Sale prices and selling probabilities today are affected by aggregate house prices prevailing in the period in which properties were previously bought. We investigate the causes of history dependence, with its quantitative implications for the post-crisis recovery of the housing market. To do so we complement our analysis  with administrative data on mortgages and online house listings, which we match to actual sales. We find that high leverage in the pre-crisis period and anchoring (or reference dependence) both contributed to the collapse and slow recovery of the volume of housing transactions. We find no asymmetric effects of anchoring to previous prices on current transactions; in other words, loss aversion does not appear to play a role over and above simple anchoring.
     

  • Fertility Convergence

    Joint with Tiloka De-Silva

    Abstract: A vast literature has sought to explain large cross-country differences in fertility rates. Income, mortality, urbanization, and female labour force participation, among other socioeconomic variables, have been suggested as explanatory factors for the differences. This paper points out that cross-country differences in fertility rates have fallen very rapidly over the past four decades, with most countries converging to a rate just above two children per woman. This absolute convergence took place despite the limited (or absent) absolute convergence in other economic variables. The rapid decline in fertility rates taking place in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the slow decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. The preferred number of children has also fallen, suggesting a shift to a small-family norm. The convergence to replacement rates will lead to a stable world population, reducing environmental concerns over explosive population growth. In this paper we explore existing explanations and bring in an additional factor influencing fertility rates: the population programs started in the 1960s, which, we argue, have accelerated the global decline in fertility rates over the past four decades.

     

  • The Transmission of Monetary Policy Operations through Redistributions and Durable Purchases
    Joint with Vincent Sterk

    Abstract: The central explanation for how monetary policy transmits to the real economy relies critically on nominal rigidities, which form the basis of the New Keynesian (NK) framework. This paper studies a different transmission mechanism that operates even in the absence of nominal rigidities. We show that in an OLG setting, standard open market operations (OMO) carried by central banks have important revaluation effects that alter the level and distribution of wealth and the incentives to work and save for retirement. Specifically, expansionary OMO lead households to front-load their purchases of durable goods and work and save more, thus generating a temporary boom in durables, followed by a bust. The mechanism can account for the empirical responses of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy interventions. Moreover, the model implies that different monetary interventions (e.g., OMO versus helicopter drops) can have different qualitative effects on activity. The mechanism can thus complement the NK paradigm. We study an extension of the model incorporating labor market frictions.

Notes

  • Booms and Busts in Argentina from the 1900s: Data Analysis and a Policy Proposal (slides)

  • On Brexit (in Spanish)
    Joint with V. Rappoport

  • The Argentine Debt Crisis in Retrospect
    Some loud thoughts on Argentina, the IMF, Greece...

  • Reply to "The Log of Gravity Revisited"
     Joint with J.M.C.  Santos-Silva, January 2009
    For other questions, data, and codes, please, check the Log-of-Gravity page here

Selected Comments and Discussions

  • The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Co-movement, by J. Di Giovanni and A. Levchenko. NBER SI 2016.

  • Does Finance Benefit Society? by Luigi Zingales. Banque de France, Paris 2015

  • Insider Outsider Labour Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy, by Jordi Gali. Oxford 2015.

  • Specialization Patterns in International Trade, by Walter Steingress. London 2015.

  • Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Shocks, by Fernando Alvarez, Francesco Lippi, and Herbe Le Bihan. Fondation Banque de France, Paris 2014.

  • Segmented Housing Markets, by Monika Piazzesi, Martin Schneider, and Johannes Stroebel. LBS, London 2013.

  • Macroeconomic Performance during Commodity Prices Booms, by Luis Cespedes and Andres Velasco, IMF Res conference, Istanbul 2012.

  • Economic Integration and Structural Change, by Jean Imbs and Romain Wacziarg, CEPR, Paris 2012.

  • Non-uniform Wage Staggering: European Evidence and Monetary Policy Implications, by Julliard, Le Bihan, and Millard, 2011.

  • Low Interest Rates and Housing Booms: the Role of Capital Inflows, Monetary Policy and Financial Innovation, by Filipa Sa, Pascal Towbin and Tomasz Wieladek. LBS, London 2011.

  • International Differences in Fiscal Policy, by Agustin Benetrix and Philip Lane. NBER TAPES conference, 2010.

  • From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons, by Miguel Alumnia, Agustin Benetrix, Barry Eichengreen, Patrick O'Rourke and Gisella Rua, 2010. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.

  • Subprime-Related Losses and Board In-Competence: Private vs. Public Banks in Germany, by Harald Hau and Marcel Thum, 2009. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.

  • The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade, (slides) by Jeff Frankel (2008). Forthcoming in NBER volume, edited by Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi. MIT Press.

  • Productivity and the Dollar, by Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc. ESSIM, Izmir 2007.

  • Do Exports Generate Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia, by Jan DeLoecker. CEPR, Alghero 2004.

  • Relative Prices and Relative Prosperity , by Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter Klenow. NBER SI, Cambridge, MA 2003.

  • Globalization and Inflation, by Natalie Chen, Jean Imbs, and Andrew Scott. CEPR, Rome 2003.

  • Exchange Rate Volatility and the Composition of Trade, by Christian Broda and John Romalis. Federal Reserve Bank, 2003.

  • The Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis, by Andy Rose. Harvard, Cambridge MA 2002.

  • Latin American Insecurity, by Dany Rodrik, with Mariano Tomassi. New York 2000.

 

Referee

Excellence in Refereeing Award, American Economic Review 2013

American Economic Journal, American Economic Review, Canadian Journal of Economics, Econometrica, Economica, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Empirical Economics, European Economic Review, European Journal of Political Economy, Fiscal Studies, International Economic Review, IMF Staff Papers, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of International Trade and Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Political Economy, National Science Foundation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of Economic Studies, Review of International Economics.

 

 

 

Teaching Timetable

 

EC442 (Macroeconomics for Ph.D. students). Lectures: Tuesdays 2.30-5.30. LT.

EC475 (Quantitative Economics). Lectures: Mondays 16:00-18:00. Classes: Mondays 10:30-11:30. MT.

EC532 (International Economics). Tuesdays 9:30-12:30. MT.