Welcome to Silvana Tenreyro's Web
Professor, Department of Economics, London School of
Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England
Fellow of the
of the Royal Economic Society
Ph.D., Harvard University, 2002. (Advisors: A. Alesina, R. Barro--chair--and K. Rogoff.)
M.A., Harvard University, 1999.
B.A., Universidad Nacional de Tucuman, Argentina,
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97, No. 3: 636-663.
and Busts in Emerging Economies
Joint with Thomas Drechsel.
Forthcoming Journal of International Economics, 2018.
Population-Control Policies and Fertility Convergence
Joint with Tiloka De-Silva. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall
2017. Vol 31, Number 31. Pages 205-228.
Pushing on a String: US
Monetary Policy is Less Powerful in Recessions
Joint with Gregory Thwaites.
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
October 2016. Volume 8, Number 4. Pages 43-74.
Set used in "Pushing on a String": Extended Series of Romer and Romer's shocks
by Thwaites and Tenreyro.
Trading Partners and Trading Flows: Implementing
the Helpman-Melitz-Rubinstein Model Empirically
with J.M.C. Santos Silva.
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and
Statistics, February 2015,
models for non-negative data with many zeros
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva and Frank Windmeijer.
Journal of Econometric Methods, January 2015, Volume 4. Pages
Hot and Cold Seasons
in the Housing Market
Joint with Rachel Ngai.
Economic Review, December 2014, Volume 104, Issue 12. Pages
Estimating the Extensive
Margin of Trade
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva and Kehai Wei.
Journal of International Economics,
2014, Volume 93, Issue 1. Pages
Joint with Miklos Koren.
The American Economic Review,
February 2013, Volume 103, Issue 1. Pages 378-414.
Patterns and Monetary Policy: International Evidence
Joint with Giovanni Olivei.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
October 2010, Volume 57, Issue 7. Pages 785-802
*Data discussion: microeconomic evidence of wage rigidity in
the United States, Europe, and Japan.
Currency Unions in
Prospect and Retrospect
with J.M.C. Santos Silva.
2010, Volume 2, Pages 51-74.
Appendix to "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect"
On the Existence of the
Estimates for Poisson Regression
with J.M.C. Santos Silva.
May 2010, Volume 107, Issue 2. Pages 310-312.
The Timing of Monetary
Joint with Giovanni Olivei. The American Economic Review, June 2007, Vol
*Data contribution: The paper reports results from new survey-based evidence
of wage rigidity in the U.S. economy, part of which was collected in
the context of the Beige Book.
Joint with Miklos Koren.
Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2007, Volume 122, No. 1: 243-287.
On the Trade Impact
of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility
Journal of Development Economics, March 2007, Volume 82,
No. 2: 485-508
Economic Effects of
Joint with Robert Barro.
Economic Inquiry, January 2007, Vol. 45, No. 1: 1-197.
Is Poland the Next
Joint with Francesco Caselli. NBER
International Seminar on Macroeconomics; R. Clarida, J. Frankel, and F.
Giavazzi, editors, 2004.
Optimal Currency Areas
Joint with Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro.
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Mark Gertler
and Kenneth Rogoff, eds. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.
Other Publications and Policy Speeches
Models in Macroeconomics,
Policy Speech, University of Surrey.
The Fall in
Productivity Growth: Causes and Implications, Peston Lecture 2018. Policy
Report on Gender Balance
in UK Economics Departments and Research Institutes
Chapter 31: Currency Unions, in Gerard Caprio Jr. (ed.), The
Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, Academic Press: San Diego,
Pages 451-461, 2013.
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva.
Diversification and Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
Joint with Miklos
The Transformation of the Gulf: Politics, Economics
and the Global Order,
Some Convergence Issues
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. The Stata Journal, 2011, Vol. 11 No. 2: 207-212.
Has the Euro Increased Trade?
Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva.
Trade, revise and resubmit,
Journal of Economics
Joint with Francesco Caselli, Miklos Koren, and Milan Lisicky
Abstract: Existing wisdom
links increased openness to trade to greater macroeconomic volatility, as trade
induces a country to specialize, increasing its exposure to sector-specific
shocks. Evidence suggests, however, that country-wide shocks are at least as
important as sectoral shocks in shaping volatility patterns. We argue that if
country-wide shocks are dominant, the impact of trade on volatility can be
negative, because trade becomes a source of diversification. For example, trade
allows domestic goods producers to respond to shocks to the domestic supply
chain by shifting sourcing abroad. Similarly, when a country has multiple
trading partners, a domestic recession or a recession in any one of the trading
partners translates into a smaller demand shock for its producers than when
trade is more limited. Using a calibrated version of the Eaton-Kortum and
Alvarez-Lucas model, we quantitatively assess the impact of lower trade barriers
on volatility since the 1970s in a broad group of countries.
The Transmission of
Monetary Policy Operations through Redistributions and Durable Purchases,
accepted, Journal of Monetary Economics
Joint with Vincent Sterk
Abstract: The central
explanation for how monetary policy transmits to the real economy relies
critically on nominal rigidities, which form the basis of the New Keynesian (NK)
framework. This paper studies a different transmission mechanism that operates
even in the absence of nominal rigidities. We show that in an OLG setting,
standard open market operations (OMO) carried by central banks have important
revaluation effects that alter the level and distribution of wealth and the
incentives to work and save for retirement. Specifically, expansionary OMO lead
households to front-load their purchases of durable goods and work and save
more, thus generating a temporary boom in durables, followed by a bust. The
mechanism can account for the empirical responses of key macroeconomic variables
to monetary policy interventions. Moreover, the model implies that different
monetary interventions (e.g., OMO versus helicopter drops) can have different
qualitative effects on activity. The mechanism can thus complement the NK
paradigm. We study an extension of the model incorporating labor market
and the Phillips Curve
This note explains why inflation follows a seemingly
exogenous statistical process, unrelated to the output gap. In other words, it
explains why it is difficult to empirically identify a Phillips curve. We show
why this result need not imply that the Phillips curve does not hold – on the
contrary, our conceptual framework is built under the assumption that the
Phillips curve always holds. The reason is simple: if monetary policy is set
with the goal of minimising welfare losses (measured as the sum of deviations of
inflation from its target and output from its potential), subject to a Phillips
curve, a central bank will seek to increase inflation when output is below
potential. This targeting rule will impart a negative correlation between
inflation and the output gap, blurring the identification of the (positively
sloped) Phillips curve.
History Dependence in
the Housing Market
Joint with Philippe Bracke
Using the universe of housing transactions in England and Wales in the last
twenty years, we document a robust pattern of history dependence in housing
markets. Sale prices and selling probabilities today are affected by aggregate
house prices prevailing in the period in which properties were previously
bought. We investigate the causes of history dependence, with its quantitative
implications for the post-crisis recovery of the housing market. To do so we
complement our analysis with administrative data on mortgages and online
house listings, which we match to actual sales. We find that high leverage in
the pre-crisis period and anchoring (or reference dependence) both contributed
to the collapse and slow recovery of the volume of housing transactions. We find
no asymmetric effects of anchoring to previous prices on current transactions;
in other words, loss aversion does not appear to play a role over and above
Intermediation, and the Gains from Trade in Agricultural Markets
Joint with Swati Dhingra
When the world price of a crop increases, how do the incomes of the crop’s
farmers in a developing country change? This paper investigates the distributional
gains stemming from changes in agricultural world prices. Agricultural markets
in developing countries are often characterized by the presence of a large
number of small farmers who sell their produce to one or few big companies with
significant monopsony or oligopsony power. We develop a flexible theoretical
framework that captures this market structure and allows us to examine the
impact of international trade on the incomes of farmers, agribusiness and
traders in developing countries. The model highlights the conditions under which
small farmers benefit (or lose) from increases in the world price of their
crops. Using household-level panel data from Kenya, we empirically study the
magnitude of the trickle-down effect of world price changes on the incomes of
farmers. Farmers benefit from quality spillovers when selling through
agribusinesses, but when global crop prices increase, on average, their income
increases 30 percent less if they sell through agribusinesses rather than small
traders. The model helps inform the debate over land and market reforms recently
implemented or planned by several developing countries.
The Fall in Global
Fertility: A Quantitative Model
Joint with Tiloka De-Silva
Over the past five decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most
middle- and low-income countries around the world. To analyse these
developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and
fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over the number of
children. The model enables us to gauge the role of human capital accumulation
on the decline in fertility and to simulate the implementation of
population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and fostering the
use of contraceptives. We parameterise the model using data on several
socio-economic variables combined with information on funding of
population-control policies. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size
norms have provided a significant impulse to accelerate and strengthen the
decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more
Selected Comments and
DSGE Models: Theory and Empirics, Nobel
Symposium presentations by M. Eichenbaum and H. Uhlig
The Micro Origins of International
Business Cycle Co-movement, by J. Di Giovanni and A. Levchenko. NBER SI
Does Finance Benefit Society? by Luigi
Zingales. Banque de France, Paris 2015
Insider Outsider Labour Markets,
Hysteresis and Monetary Policy, by Jordi Gali. Oxford 2015.
Specialization Patterns in International
Trade, by Walter Steingress. London 2015.
Small and Large Price Changes and the
Propagation of Shocks, by Fernando Alvarez, Francesco Lippi, and Herbe
Le Bihan. Fondation Banque de France, Paris 2014.
Segmented Housing Markets, by Monika
Piazzesi, Martin Schneider, and Johannes Stroebel. LBS, London 2013.
Macroeconomic Performance during Commodity Prices
Booms, by Luis Cespedes and Andres Velasco, IMF Res conference, Istanbul 2012.
Economic Integration and Structural Change, by Jean Imbs and Romain
Wacziarg, CEPR, Paris 2012.
Staggering: European Evidence and Monetary Policy Implications,
by Julliard, Le Bihan, and Millard, 2011.
Low Interest Rates and Housing Booms: the Role of
Capital Inflows, Monetary Policy and Financial Innovation, by
Filipa Sa, Pascal Towbin and Tomasz Wieladek. LBS, London 2011.
International Differences in Fiscal Policy, by Agustin Benetrix and Philip
Lane. NBER TAPES conference, 2010.
From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences
and Lessons, by Miguel Alumnia, Agustin Benetrix, Barry Eichengreen,
Patrick O'Rourke and Gisella Rua, 2010.
Forthcoming in Economic Policy.
Subprime-Related Losses and Board In-Competence: Private vs. Public Banks
in Germany, by Harald Hau and Marcel Thum, 2009. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.
The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade,
Jeff Frankel (2008). Forthcoming in NBER volume, edited by Alberto
Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi. MIT Press.
Productivity and the Dollar,
by Giancarlo Corsetti,
Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc. ESSIM, Izmir 2007.
Do Exports Generate Higher
Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia, by Jan DeLoecker. CEPR, Alghero 2004.
Relative Prices and Relative
Prosperity , by
Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter Klenow. NBER SI, Cambridge,
Globalization and Inflation,
by Natalie Chen, Jean Imbs, and Andrew Scott. CEPR, Rome 2003.
Exchange Rate Volatility and the Composition of Trade,
by Christian Broda and
John Romalis. Federal Reserve Bank, 2003.
Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis, by Andy
Rose. Harvard, Cambridge MA 2002.
Latin American Insecurity,
by Dany Rodrik, with Mariano Tomassi.
New York 2000.
Excellence in Refereeing Award, American Economic Review 2013
American Economic Journal, American Economic Review, Canadian Journal of Economics,
Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Empirical
Economics, European Economic Review, European Journal of Political Economy,
Fiscal Studies, International Economic Review, IMF Staff Papers,
of Applied Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and
Control, Journal of the European Economic
Association, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International
Journal of International Trade and Development, Journal of Monetary Economics,
Journal of Political Economy,
National Science Foundation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Quarterly Journal of
Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics,
Review of Economic Studies,
Review of International Economics.
for Ph.D. students). Lectures: Tuesdays 2.30-5.30. LT.
(Quantitative Economics). Lectures: Mondays 16:00-18:00. Classes: Mondays
EC532 (International Economics).
Tuesdays 9:30-12:30. MT.