Welcome to Silvana Tenreyro's Web page     



Current Positions and Affiliations

Professor, Department of Economics, London School of Economics

External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Bank of England

President of the European Economic Association

Fellow of the British Academy

Advisory Council Member, Centre for Inflation Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Associate Editor, Quarterly Journal of Economics

Programme Leader, CfM

Research Associate, CEP

Research Fellow, CEPR

 

Curriculum Vitae (pdf)

 

Education

Ph.D., Harvard University, 2002. (Advisors: A. Alesina, R. Barro--chair--and K. Rogoff.) 

M.A., Harvard University, 1999.

B.A., Universidad Nacional de Tucuman, Argentina, 1997.

 

Contact: s.tenreyro[at]LSE.ac.uk

If you have questions about "The Log of Gravity", please click here

 

 

Published and Forthcoming Academic Papers 

  •  Economic Effects of Currency Unions
    Joint with Robert Barro. Economic Inquiry, January 2007, Vol. 45, No. 1: 1-197.
     

  • Is Poland the Next Spain?  
    Joint with Francesco Caselli. NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics; R. Clarida, J. Frankel, and F. Giavazzi, editors, 2004.

     

  •  Optimal Currency Areas
    Joint with Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, eds. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.

 

 

Other Publications and Policy Speeches

Working Papers
 

  • Climate-Change Pledges, Actions and Outcomes
    Joint with Tiloka De-Silva

     
    Abstract:
    We study countries’ compliance with targets pledged in international climate-change agreements and the impact of those agreements as well as specific climate laws and policies on greenhouse-gas emissions and economic outcomes. To do so, we compile and codify data on international agreements and measures enacted at the national and sub-national levels. We find that compliance with targets has been mixed. Still, both signing and having quantifiable targets set in the context of the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accord have led to significant reductions in emissions. Effects from the Paris Agreement are not yet evident in the data. Carbon taxes and the introduction of emission-trading schemes lead to material reductions in emissions. Other climate laws or policies do not appear to have, individually, a significant effect on emissions. The impact on output or inflation from most measures is largely insignificant. Overall, much more ambitious targets would be needed to offset the larger impact of economic and population growth on emissions.

  • Monetary Policy for Commodity Booms and Busts
    Joint with Thomas Drechsel and Michael McLeay, prepared for FRBD Jackson Hole Conference 2019

     
    Abstract:
    Macroeconomic volatility in commodity-exporting economies is closely tied to fluctuations in international commodity prices. Commodity booms improve exporters' terms of trade and loosen their borrowing conditions, while busts lead to the reverse. This paper studies optimal monetary policy for commodity exporters in a small open economy framework that includes a key role for nancial conditions. We incorporate the interaction between the commodity and financial cycles via a working capital constraint for commodity producers, which loosens as commodity prices increase. A rise in global commodity prices causes the commodity sector to expand and increase its demand for inputs, leading to a real exchange-rate appreciation. Domestic firms do not internalize the terms of trade movement, which results in an inefficient boom: inflation rises and output increases relative to its welfare-maximizing level. Returning inflation to target is not sufficient to close the output gap, leaving the policymaker facing a stabilization tradeoff. The optimal policy lets the exchange rate appreciate and raises interest rates, with a larger rate rise required the greater the loosening in borrowing conditions. The paper compares alternative policy rules and discusses a key practical challenge for some emerging economies: how to transition to a stable path from initial conditions of high and persistent inflation.

  • The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom
    Joint with Ben Broadbent, Thomas Drechsel, Federico DiPace and Richard Harrison

     
    Abstract:
    The UK economy has experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. This paper develops and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors to characterize these adjustments. We demonstrate that many of the effects of the referendum result can be conceptualized as news about a future slowdown in productivity growth in the tradable sector. Simulations show that the responses of the model economy to such news are consistent with key patterns in UK data. While overall economic growth slows, an immediate permanent fall in the relative price of non-tradable output (the real exchange rate) induces a temporary “sweet spot” for tradable producers before the slowdown in the tradable sector productivity associated with Brexit occurs. Resources are reallocated towards the tradable sector, tradable output growth rises and net exports increase. These developments reverse after the productivity decline in the tradable sector materializes. The negative news about tradable sector productivity also lead to a decline in domestic interest rates relative to world interest rates and to a reduction in investment growth, while employment remains relatively stable. As a by-product of our Brexit simulations, we provide a quantitative analysis of the UK business cycle.

  • The Rise in Agribusinesses and its Distributional Consequences
    Joint with Swati Dhingra 

     
    Abstract: Crops are often modelled as homogenous products that are exchanged in perfectly competitive markets. While this may be true of world commodity markets, smallholder farmers face high trade barriers in selling their crops at home and abroad. Smallholder farmers can overcome these barriers by selling to agribusinesses with better intermediation technologies. This has provided a rationale for policies encouraging agribusinesses. However, the rise of agribusinesses also skews the distribution of buyers of farm produce towards larger firms with greater buyer power. This paper documents the reliance of farmers on intermediaries and shows that farmers selling to agribusinesses differ systematically from others. We incorporate these stylised facts into a flexible theoretical framework to study the aggregate and distributional consequences of the rise of agribusinesses. Taking the theory to data, we quantify behind-the-border barriers to trade embedded in a national policy to encourage agribusiness participation. We combine this with microdata on household-crop incomes and nd that the policy led to a reduction in incomes of small farmers. Losses were concentrated among farmers who sold to agribusinesses and in villages with a comparative advantage in policy-a ected crops. On average, their incomes fell by 6 per cent with no o setting gains in non-farm channels of income. Profit margins of agribusinesses specialised in policy-a ected crops rose, in line with the theoretical channel. The ndings contribute to the academic and policy debate on the impacts of integration and market power on the size and distribution of the welfare gains from trade.

  • Piggy-Back Exporting, Intermediation, and the Gains from Trade in Agricultural Markets
    Joint with Swati Dhingra 

     
    Abstract: When the world price of a crop increases, how do the incomes of the crop’s farmers in a developing country change? This paper investigates the distributional gains stemming from changes in agricultural world prices. Agricultural markets in developing countries are often characterized by the presence of a large number of small farmers who sell their produce to one or few big companies with significant monopsony or oligopsony power. We develop a flexible theoretical framework that captures this market structure and allows us to examine the impact of international trade on the incomes of farmers, agribusiness and traders in developing countries. The model highlights the conditions under which small farmers benefit (or lose) from increases in the world price of their crops. Using household-level panel data from Kenya, we empirically study the magnitude of the trickle-down effect of world price changes on the incomes of farmers. Farmers benefit from quality spillovers when selling through agribusinesses, but when global crop prices increase, on average, their income increases 30 percent less if they sell through agribusinesses rather than small traders. The model helps inform the debate over land and market reforms recently implemented or planned by several developing countries.


  • Monopsony in the UK
    Joint with Will Abel and Greg Thwaites 

     
    Abstract:
    We study the evolution and effects of monopsony power in the UK private sector labour market from 1998 to 2017. Using linked employee-firm micro-data, we find that: (1) Measures of monopsony have been relatively stable across the time period examined - rising prior to the crisis, before subsequently falling again. (2) There is substantial cross-sectional variation in monopsony at the industry level. (3) Higher levels of labour market concentration are associated with lower pay amongst workers not covered by a collective bargaining agreement. (4) For workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, the association between labour market concentration and pay is greatly reduced and in most cases disappears. (5) The link between productivity and wage levels is weaker when labour markets are more concentrated.

 

Notes

Selected Comments and Discussions

  • Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space, by Matthew Delventhal, Jesus Fernandez Villaverde and Nezih Guner, CEPR 2020.

  • The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty, by Tarek Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent and Ahmed Tahoun, NBER SI 2020.

  • Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool? by Olivier Coibion, Yuryi Gorodnichenko, Mathieu Pedemonte and Saten Kumar, 2019.

  • Some International Evidence for Keynesian Economics Without the Phillips Curve, by Roger Farmer and Giovanni Nicolo, 2019.

  • DSGE Models: Theory and Empirics, Nobel Symposium presentations by Martin Eichenbaum and Harald Uhlig, 2018.

  • The Micro Origins of International Business Cycle Co-movement, by Julian Di Giovanni and Andrei Levchenko. NBER SI 2016.

  • Does Finance Benefit Society? by Luigi Zingales. Banque de France, Paris 2015

  • Insider Outsider Labour Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy, by Jordi Gali. Oxford 2015.

  • Specialization Patterns in International Trade, by Walter Steingress. London 2015.

  • Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Shocks, by Fernando Alvarez, Francesco Lippi, and Herbe Le Bihan. Fondation Banque de France, Paris 2014.

  • Segmented Housing Markets, by Monika Piazzesi, Martin Schneider, and Johannes Stroebel. LBS, London 2013.

  • Macroeconomic Performance during Commodity Prices Booms, by Luis Cespedes and Andres Velasco, IMF Res conference, Istanbul 2012.

  • Economic Integration and Structural Change, by Jean Imbs and Romain Wacziarg, CEPR, Paris 2012.

  • Non-uniform Wage Staggering: European Evidence and Monetary Policy Implications, by Julliard, Le Bihan, and Millard, 2011.

  • Low Interest Rates and Housing Booms: the Role of Capital Inflows, Monetary Policy and Financial Innovation, by Filipa Sa, Pascal Towbin and Tomasz Wieladek. LBS, London 2011.

  • International Differences in Fiscal Policy, by Agustin Benetrix and Philip Lane. NBER TAPES conference, 2010.

  • From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences and Lessons, by Miguel Alumnia, Agustin Benetrix, Barry Eichengreen, Patrick O'Rourke and Gisella Rua, 2010. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.

  • Subprime-Related Losses and Board In-Competence: Private vs. Public Banks in Germany, by Harald Hau and Marcel Thum, 2009. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.

  • The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade, (slides) by Jeff Frankel (2008). Forthcoming in NBER volume, edited by Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi. MIT Press.

  • Productivity and the Dollar, by Giancarlo Corsetti, Luca Dedola, and Sylvain Leduc. ESSIM, Izmir 2007.

  • Do Exports Generate Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia, by Jan DeLoecker. CEPR, Alghero 2004.

  • Relative Prices and Relative Prosperity , by Chang-Tai Hsieh and Peter Klenow. NBER SI, Cambridge, MA 2003.

  • Globalization and Inflation, by Natalie Chen, Jean Imbs, and Andrew Scott. CEPR, Rome 2003.

  • Exchange Rate Volatility and the Composition of Trade, by Christian Broda and John Romalis. Federal Reserve Bank, 2003.

  • The Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis, by Andy Rose. Harvard, Cambridge MA 2002.

  • Latin American Insecurity, by Dany Rodrik, with Mariano Tomassi. New York 2000.

 

Referee

Excellence in Refereeing Award, American Economic Review 2013

American Economic Journal, American Economic Review, Canadian Journal of Economics, Econometrica, Economica, Economic Journal, Economics of Transition, Empirical Economics, European Economic Review, European Journal of Political Economy, Fiscal Studies, International Economic Review, IMF Staff Papers, Journal of Applied Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of the European Economic Association, Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of International Trade and Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Political Economy, National Science Foundation, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of Economic Studies, Review of International Economics.