• Monetary Policy in the Face of Large Shocks, Resolution Foundation. Policy speech, June 2023.

• Monetary Policy in the Face of Supply Shocks: The Role of Expectations, joint with N. Bandera, L. Barnes, M. Chavaz and L. von dem Berge. Sintra, June 2023.

• Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening, Royal Economic Society, Glasgow University. Policy speech, April 2023.

• The Path to 2 percent, Society of Professional Economists. Policy speech, November 2022.

• The Economy and Policy Tradeoffs, Economic Research Council. Policy speech, March 2022.

• The Log of Gravity at 15  
  Joint with JMC Santos Silva. Forthcoming, Portuguese Economic Journal, 2022.
  

• International Trade, Global-Supply Chains and Monetary Policy, CEPR webinar. Policy speech, October 2021.

• Economic Challenges to Latin America from the Pandemic, Guido Di Tella Memorial Lecture, Latin American Centre, Oxford University, May 2021. Slides

• Response to the Covid-19 pandemic: UK and US experiences, San Francisco Fed Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Conference. Policy speech, March 2021. Slides.

• Let's Talk about Negative Rates, UWE Bristol Webinar. Policy speech, January 2021.

• Covid-19 and the economy: what are the lessons so far?, London School of Economics Webinar. Policy speech, July 2020.

• Monetary policy during pandemics: inflation before, during and after Covid-19, Bank of England Webinar. Policy speech, April 2020.

• Monetary Policy and Open Questions in International Macroeconomics, John Flemming Lecture. Policy speech, 2019.

• Understanding Inflation: Expectations and Reality, Ronald Tress Memorial Lecture, Birckbeck College. Policy speech, 2019.

• The Elusive Supply Potential: Monetary Policy in Times of Uncertainty, Glasgow, Policy speech, 2019.

• Models in Macroeconomics, University of Surrey. Policy speech, 2018.

• The Fall in Productivity Growth: Causes and Implications, Peston Lecture QMU. Policy speech, 2018.

• Report on Gender Balance in UK Economics Departments and Research Institutes, written for the Royal Economic Society, 2017.

• Currency Unions, in Gerard Caprio Jr. (ed.), The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization, Academic Press: San Diego, Chapter 31. Pages 451-461, 2013.
  Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva.

• Volatility, Diversification and Development in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
  Joint with Miklos Koren. The Transformation of the Gulf: Politics, Economics and the Global Order, David Held and Kristian Ulrichsen, eds. 2011.

• poisson: Some Convergence Issues
  Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. The Stata Journal, 2011, Vol. 11 No. 2: 207-212.

• Has the Euro Increased Trade?
  Joint with J.M.C. Santos Silva. CentrePiece, 15(2).
   

Working Papers
 

• Helicopter Money: What is it and what does it do?
  Joint with Ricardo Reis
  
   Abstract: We review the different meanings of helicopter money both in the literature and in the public debate around it, and clarify the conditions under which helicopter money can have an impact on real activity. To do so, we set out a simple model that encapsulates a number of potential channels of policy transmission. The model provides a taxonomy of possibilities for helicopter money to affect the economy, as well as a benchmark set of conditions under which it is neutral. We use the model to analyse and discuss the impact that helicopter drops might have in response to a number of economic shocks, including a financial crisis, a fiscal crisis, and a pandemic.
  
  
  

• The Rise in Agribusinesses and its Distributional Consequences
  Joint with Swati Dhingra 
  
   Abstract: Crops are often modelled as homogenous products that are exchanged in perfectly competitive markets. While this may be true of world commodity markets, smallholder farmers face high trade barriers in selling their crops at home and abroad. Smallholder farmers can overcome these barriers by selling to agribusinesses with better intermediation technologies. This has provided a rationale for policies encouraging agribusinesses. However, the rise of agribusinesses also skews the distribution of buyers of farm produce towards larger firms with greater buyer power. This paper documents the reliance of farmers on intermediaries and shows that farmers selling to agribusinesses differ systematically from others. We incorporate these stylised facts into a flexible theoretical framework to study the aggregate and distributional consequences of the rise of agribusinesses. Taking the theory to data, we quantify behind-the-border barriers to trade embedded in a national policy to encourage agribusiness participation. We combine this with microdata on household-crop incomes and find that the policy led to a reduction in incomes of small farmers. Losses were concentrated among farmers who sold to agribusinesses and in villages with a comparative advantage in policy-affected crops. On average, their incomes fell by 6 per cent with no offsetting gains in non-farm channels of income. Profit margins of agribusinesses specialised in policy-affected crops rose, in line with the theoretical channel. The findings contribute to the academic and policy debate on the impact of integration and market power on the size and distribution of the welfare gains from trade.
  
  
  

• The Balance of Power: monopsony, unions, and wages in the United Kingdom
  Joint with Will Abel and Greg Thwaites 
  
   Abstract: We document the evolution of labour market concentration in the UK private sector labour market from 1998-2018, how labour unions have counterbalanced this power, and the net effect on wages. Using linked employee- rm micro-data, we find that: (1) Measures of labour market concentration have not exhibited a time trend over the time period examined. (2) There is substantial cross-sectional variation in concentration at the industry level. (3) Higher levels of labour market concentration are associated with lower pay amongst workers not covered by a collective bargaining agreement. (4) For workers covered by a collective bargaining agreement, the association between labour market concentration and pay disappears. (5) The effects of concentration and union coverage are generally larger for lower-paid workers, and workers in tradable industries. (6) Collective bargaining agreements weaken the impact of workers' outside options in other labour markets, which nonetheless remain strong.